The Population Pincer

Presenter: Richard Dowsett

Originally when I suggested this topic, I conceived of it as The Population Crash. In this scenario, declining birthrates in developed countries supposedly make a mockery of our century of concern about the dangers of Overpopulation that saw world population double TWICE in the last 100 years. Sadly, the truth is that the world will be facing the consequences of both Population Crash and Overpopulation in the coming decades if current trends continue. We are caught in a Population Pincer.

On the one side of the pincer claw is Overpopulation. The current 8 billion people is already more than the earth’s water, soil, oceans and forests can sustain. The earth’s habitability is taking a beating with 6 of 9 boundaries currently being exceeded. And there is no relief in sight.  Even with declining birthrates, best estimates see a planetary peak population of 10 billion in 55 years. These 55 years will see per capita resource consumption rise. The current 1.7 earths needed to support our current usage will rise to 3 or 4 earths. The effects of overpopulation on every facet of human existence cannot be ignored (see below for details).

Note: Thanks to Rhett Kuseski from the Humanist Association of Orange County for introducing me to Population Connection, a group concerned about overpopulation.

On the other side of the pincer is Population Crash. For many possible reasons, 54% of countries now have a birthrate that is below replacement rate (2.1). This means that, without immigration, populations will decline. The number of countries with birthrates below replacement will likely continue to rise AND the absolute values of their birthrates will continue to fall. Such depopulation will soon begin to exert massive pressures on the societies and economies of the current world powers with far-ranging impacts (see below for details).

Questions

1.       What possible new technologies (new energy tech, AI) or social changes could extricate us from the Population Pincer?  Is this our likely future?

2.       Canada has been maintaining a growing population through immigration with 96% of our growth coming via immigration. Can we sustain our population in this way? At what cost? Can we do it better?

3.       What are the possible solutions to Population Crash? Will they work?

4.       India and China have been the largest sources of immigrants to Canada since 1970 but increasingly our source will be Africa. 29% of global births currently occur in Africa and that percentage is set to rise to 33% by 2030, 40% by 2050 and 55% by 2100. What will Canada need to do now and, in the future, to better integrate African migrants? What unique challenges does African immigration present?

5.       One of the solutions to population crash is increased reliance on an aging but healthy population for employment and taxation. What social challenges with this present? How can societies make this more palatable?

6.       Would knowledge of the impending population crash in Canada have affected your family planning decisions?

Resources

1.       The Truth about Human Population Decline

2.       Why Humans are Vanishing - Kurzgesagt

3.       Population Connection – Why overpopulation matters

4.       Why Canada cannot solve its problems with immigration – Economics Explained

Overpopulation

World population is still growing even if the rate of growth has slowed significantly (from 2.2% per year in 1960 to 0.8% in 2022). Latest UN estimates expect a peak world population of 10 billion by 2080. Such a massive population has caused huge stress on the biosphere and the socio-political environment and will continue to do so.

1. Resource Depletion

• Increased demand for food – keeping up with food demand means deforestation (leading to soil degradation and desertification), pollution (leading to ground water contamination and ocean dead zones), habitat loss (leading to biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse) and water shortages.

• Energy demand surge – Higher population increases the demand for electricity, fuels, and infrastructure, often leading to more fossil fuel use if renewables don’t scale fast enough. Power hungry AI data centres coming online will add to this surge

2. Environmental Degradation

• Loss of biodiversity – The 2019 UN/IPBES report suggests that up to 1 million species—out of an estimated 8 million animal and plant species—are threatened with extinction.

• Overfishing – Oceans face collapse of fish stocks if demand continues unchecked.

• Climate change acceleration – More people burning fuel, producing goods, and using land increases greenhouse gas emissions.

3. Social & Political Strains

• Competition for resources – Can heighten social tensions leading to civil wars and border conflicts.

• Migration pressures – Resource shortages and environmental decline will create increasing numbers of refugees whose situation precludes their productive contribution to world society and whose presence can destabilize their host nations

Population Crash

The world’s developed countries have experienced a demographic transition from Stage 1 high birth rate/high death rate (low population) to Stage 2 high birth rate/lower death rate (population explosion) to Stage 3 low birth rate/low death rate (stability) and are now in Stage 4 with birth rate below replacement rate/extended life expectancy. 110 out of the world’s 204 countries are in Stage 4 with this number expected to be 155 (76%) by 2050.

In many countries the impacts are dramatic. By 2100, with current birthrates, China, Poland and Japan will lose half their population; Italy, Thailand and Eastern Europe will be down 40% and South Korea, with the world’s lowest birthrate, will have lost 63% of their current population.

And it isn’t just about having fewer people — it’s about the economic, social, and political ripple effects that come with a shrinking and aging population.

A. Shrinking workforce - fewer working-age adults means lower economic output, reduced innovation, and difficulty staffing industries. Shortages in critical sectors like healthcare, manufacturing, and education become common.

B. Fiscal strain on social systems and infrastructure - fewer workers per retiree mean pension systems, public healthcare and infrastructure that rely on taxes from workers will either have to cut benefits or raise taxes to prevent collapse.

C. Economic stagnation & deflation risk - fewer consumers mean weaker demand for goods, services, and housing. Fewer workers means lower total productivity. Aging populations tend to spend less and save more, which can suppress economic growth and even cause deflation.

D. Political & security implications - countries with declining populations may face losses of economic, social and military power/influence and rising generational tensions as policies favor either the elderly (pensions, healthcare) or youth (education, housing).

Please join the Zoom Meeting here: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/971381033