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February 24th marked one year since Russia invaded Ukraine. Western countries have applied sanctions against Russia and supported Ukraine with tanks, drones and weapons and ammunition—but not the fighter jets requested by Ukraine. President Zalinskyy has been described as a Churchillian leader whereas Putin is called a fascist, Bloodimir, Vladolf, Putler, a psychopath and a narcissist lost in his own mirrors.
In an article “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” at Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ • President of Russia (kremlin.ru) in 2014, Putin justifies his aggression by citing history, and even religion.
“Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians are all descendants of Ancient Rus, which was the largest state in Europe. Slavic and other tribes across the vast territory – from Ladoga, Novgorod, and Pskov to Kiev and Chernigov – were bound together by one language … economic ties, the rule of the princes of the Rurik dynasty, and – after the baptism of Rus – the Orthodox faith.”
It is said that 85% of all Russians support Putin’s views, but how believable can this be? Anecdotes from Russians living outside of Russia disagree. As one of my Russian students said, “It’s not true. Many men are hiding in their apartments to avoid being conscripted into the Russian army. They don’t want to kill Ukrainians.”
Andrei Kozyrev in The Journal of Democracy, May 2022 writes that Putin said, in “conversation with [Angela] Merkel that “Russia’s values were superior and diametrically opposed to Western decadence. “It was Nazi Germany’s claim of racial superiority and the Stalinist Soviet Union’s claim of ideological superiority that underpinned their attacks on other nations.”
Kozyrev insists that Putin must be stopped because “Leaders in democracies, in Putin’s view, will always be weak, hamstrung as they are by the need to win votes. Sergey Karaganov, a former top advisor to Putin … In an April 2022 interview, Karaganov said that Russia must win its war against Ukraine, but also made it clear that the real adversary in this war is the West, whose “moral foundation” is in question. Explaining the Kremlin’s strategic calculus, Karaganov said that “democracy in its present form in most European countries will not survive…democracies always wither away or become autocratic. These changes are inevitable.”
The Bottom Line
Kozyrev goes on, “The more determined democracies are to avoid war, the greater the risk that autocracies will wage it. The claim of military success helps autocrats to seize and hold power. Thus, the war in Ukraine will likely be a defining moment for Russia that will also have repercussions all over the world. If the West allows Putin to claim victory in Ukraine, antidemocracy populists everywhere will celebrate, believing that they can do whatever they want, and Putin will cement his dictatorship in Russia. …If Russia wins this war, his agents of influence and useful idiots in the West will be singing his praises while police repression in Russia is ratcheted up even more—just to be on the safe side.”
Kozyrev concludes, “Putin’s war on Ukraine has laid bare the critical need to defend and promote democracy in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere. But it has also demonstrated democracy’s amazing resilience. The brutality of the Russian war has reminded people everywhere of the existential danger that autocracy poses because it relies on violence at home and, in many cases, abroad. Prodemocracy forces in the West and beyond have mobilized once again. Democracy is still on the march, however treacherous the path ahead may be.”
Discussion
1. So, it appears that Putin and Zalenskyy have dug in their heels. Does the West feel that even western democracy is seriously under threat if Ukraine should fall? Is Ukraine the fine edge of the wedge that could bring down even more democracies?
2. China appears willing to support Putin according to Kozyrev. “Chinese president Xi Jinping and Putin met on 4 February 2022, ahead of the Beijing Olympics. They signed a long communiqué outlining future areas of cooperation and claimed there were “no limits” to their commitments.” Is China bluffing? How could China’s support of Putin play out?
3. Have sanctions against Russia been working?
4. Do you think that the US should send fighter jets to Ukraine? What is the risk and what could be the consequences?
5. There are calls for negotiation from Noam Chomsky and others. In negotiation both sides generally make concessions. What concessions could the West make, especially in view of Zelenskyy’s refusal to concede anything?
Dig deeper into history: Putin’s Mein Kampf: An Invasion Foretold | Portside